Richard Moroney, Dow Theory Forecasts
In general, we prefer not to fight the majority money opinion. Because share-price performance is among the more effective and forward-looking indicators, we prefer not to recommend a stock under severe selling pressure. But when we recommend a stock because it represents an attractive value--and the stock becomes an even better value because of indiscriminate or excessive selling--we will sometimes buck the trend.
Freeport-McMoRan (nyse: FCX - news - people ) has been hit hard by the downturn in commodities and commodity-related stocks, slumping more than 75% since June. Sharply lower copper prices explain most of the sell-off; copper prices recently reached a three-year low near $2 per pound, down from $4 in July.
While copper's drop has been far worse than we anticipated--and our decision to stick with Freeport was a mistake--several factors suggest the stock is a good value at current prices:
Even among analysts who have revised or confirmed estimates since mid-October, the outlook for 2009 varies widely. Those expecting a rebound in copper prices expect per-share earnings to exceed $7, while those forecasting flat prices expect $3 to $5.
Merrill Lynch (nyse: MER - news - people ) expects per-share earnings of $11 based on an estimated copper price of $3.79 per pound but warns that a copper price of $2 per pound would translate into per-share earnings of $3.50. Even based on that lower estimate, the stock is cheap at less than nine times earnings. Prior to 2008, the lowest trailing P/E of the last decade was eight.
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Freeport is a low-cost producer, largely because of its massive Grasberg mine in Indonesia. Like its rivals, Freeport is already cutting back in higher-cost areas. If copper prices remain below $2.50 per pound, many analysts expect industry-wide cutbacks to continue. So, while a drop to $1.50 per pound is certainly possible, we don't think such a low price would be sustained.
The company is generating healthy cash flows at today's copper prices. Long-term debt has been cut to $7.2 billion, down from $11.8 billion in March 2007. Freeport does not face any significant debt maturities in 2009 or 2010. Share repurchases and dividend increases are unlikely until copper prices rebound. But the annual dividend of $2 per share, equating to a 6.7% yield, seems safe for now.
Freeport, a Focus List buy, will remain under pressure until copper prices find some support, but the company is one of the better-positioned players in the mining sector and the stock appears unduly cheap.
Wireless telecom operator NII Holdings (nasdaq: NIHD - news - people ), formerly Nextel International, has slumped on expectations of economic weakness in Latin America and a sharp rally in the U.S. dollar. Investors may also be worried by rumors that NII is interested in acquiring Nextel, a struggling U.S. carrier, from Sprint Nextel (nyse: S - news - people ).
NII posted third-quarter net income of $91.8 million, up from $81.6 million a year before. On a per-share basis, earnings grew 17% to $0.54. The company finished the quarter with 5.8 million subscribers, up 33% in the past year.
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Even based on a below-consensus 2009 profit estimate of $2.50, the stock would appear very cheap at less than seven times earnings. Since NII began trading in 2003, the average trailing P/E ratio is 26. Prior to 2008, the stock had never traded at a P/E ratio below 10.
If NII's core markets of Brazil, Argentina and Mexico face recessions in 2009, the company is likely to have higher cancellation rates and slower customer growth. But an emphasis on higher-end business customers should provide some protection from the most severe price competition, and NII will continue to benefit from the migration toward digital services.
The company has a solid balance sheet with about $2.4 billion in long-term debt and limited debt repayments due before 2011. Considering NII's $1.3 billion cash position and solid cash flow, the company appears to have the wherewithal to pursue its growth strategy.
With emerging stock markets under severe pressure--and investors worried that Argentina or other Latin American nations could face a debt repayment crisis--NII shares may remain under pressure in the near term. But, even based on pessimistic forecasts for Latin America, the stock seems undervalued at current prices. NII remains a Focus List buy.
By Forbes
Freeport-McMoRan (nyse: FCX - news - people ) has been hit hard by the downturn in commodities and commodity-related stocks, slumping more than 75% since June. Sharply lower copper prices explain most of the sell-off; copper prices recently reached a three-year low near $2 per pound, down from $4 in July.
While copper's drop has been far worse than we anticipated--and our decision to stick with Freeport was a mistake--several factors suggest the stock is a good value at current prices:
Even among analysts who have revised or confirmed estimates since mid-October, the outlook for 2009 varies widely. Those expecting a rebound in copper prices expect per-share earnings to exceed $7, while those forecasting flat prices expect $3 to $5.
Merrill Lynch (nyse: MER - news - people ) expects per-share earnings of $11 based on an estimated copper price of $3.79 per pound but warns that a copper price of $2 per pound would translate into per-share earnings of $3.50. Even based on that lower estimate, the stock is cheap at less than nine times earnings. Prior to 2008, the lowest trailing P/E of the last decade was eight.
Special Offer: Market meltdowns create opportunities to buy quality stocks at ridiculously cheap prices and fantastically fat yields, like Chevron at 4.2% and Freeport at 7.9%. Click here for a dozen more buys in Dow Theory Forecasts.
Freeport is a low-cost producer, largely because of its massive Grasberg mine in Indonesia. Like its rivals, Freeport is already cutting back in higher-cost areas. If copper prices remain below $2.50 per pound, many analysts expect industry-wide cutbacks to continue. So, while a drop to $1.50 per pound is certainly possible, we don't think such a low price would be sustained.
The company is generating healthy cash flows at today's copper prices. Long-term debt has been cut to $7.2 billion, down from $11.8 billion in March 2007. Freeport does not face any significant debt maturities in 2009 or 2010. Share repurchases and dividend increases are unlikely until copper prices rebound. But the annual dividend of $2 per share, equating to a 6.7% yield, seems safe for now.
Freeport, a Focus List buy, will remain under pressure until copper prices find some support, but the company is one of the better-positioned players in the mining sector and the stock appears unduly cheap.
Wireless telecom operator NII Holdings (nasdaq: NIHD - news - people ), formerly Nextel International, has slumped on expectations of economic weakness in Latin America and a sharp rally in the U.S. dollar. Investors may also be worried by rumors that NII is interested in acquiring Nextel, a struggling U.S. carrier, from Sprint Nextel (nyse: S - news - people ).
NII posted third-quarter net income of $91.8 million, up from $81.6 million a year before. On a per-share basis, earnings grew 17% to $0.54. The company finished the quarter with 5.8 million subscribers, up 33% in the past year.
Special Offer: Larry Kudlow may tease Gary Shilling about being bearish, but Gary was right! The housing market crashed, banks went under and now the government is here to save the day. Think the problems have passed? Think again before you invest. Click here for advice to keep your wealth with Gary Shilling's Insight.
Even based on a below-consensus 2009 profit estimate of $2.50, the stock would appear very cheap at less than seven times earnings. Since NII began trading in 2003, the average trailing P/E ratio is 26. Prior to 2008, the stock had never traded at a P/E ratio below 10.
If NII's core markets of Brazil, Argentina and Mexico face recessions in 2009, the company is likely to have higher cancellation rates and slower customer growth. But an emphasis on higher-end business customers should provide some protection from the most severe price competition, and NII will continue to benefit from the migration toward digital services.
The company has a solid balance sheet with about $2.4 billion in long-term debt and limited debt repayments due before 2011. Considering NII's $1.3 billion cash position and solid cash flow, the company appears to have the wherewithal to pursue its growth strategy.
With emerging stock markets under severe pressure--and investors worried that Argentina or other Latin American nations could face a debt repayment crisis--NII shares may remain under pressure in the near term. But, even based on pessimistic forecasts for Latin America, the stock seems undervalued at current prices. NII remains a Focus List buy.
By Forbes
By Kate BettsIt's an all-too-familiar fairy tale: small town girl gets big gig — and the clothing to go with it. We see it in Hollywood and in the fashion and magazine publishing businesses all the time. But Sarah Palin's recent run-in with designer merch at high-end emporiums like Neiman Marcus and Saks Fifth Avenue to the tune of about $150,000 is unacceptable simply because she has spent so much time campaigning against elitist attitudes. And now here she is, crossing the tarmac in a pair of Cole Haan boots, showing up at Ground Zero in what definitely looks like an Akris Punto jacket (the average price of which runs in the $2,000 plus range), and delivering her speech at the Republican convention in a Valentino jacket. Ka-CHING!
Palin's spokesperson, Tracey Schmitt, has dismissed the hoopla surrounding the Republican vice-presidential candidate's shopping sprees (or rather, her stylist's shopping sprees) and added that the clothing would all be donated to charity anyway (at the stroke of midnight). What is a charity going to do with an old Valentino jacket that doesn't have much resale value anyway? And, more importantly, why does a "no-frills" middle class hockey mom from Alaska need to buy designer clothing when there are fantastic facsimiles to be found at one tenth of the price at places like Zara, Ann Taylor, and Banana Republic? Nevermind that the RNC fund is footing the bill.
Of course, a girl can dream. My friend Tom Kizzia, a reporter at the Anchorage Daily News who wrote two major profiles of Palin when she was running for governor, has an 18-year-old daughter who is obsessed by Chanel. Living in Alaska doesn't preclude sophistication. Which leads to my next point: if you're going to make a splash and spend $150,000 of the RNC fund's money, why not go for something a little more remarkable — dare I say stylish — like a pinstriped Ralph Lauren pantsuit, a spiffy Chanel jacket, or anything by Giorgio Armani? Michelle Obama chose wisely when she picked a floral-printed dress by Thakoon for the convention. Instead Palin opted for bland approximations of what she always wears, a kind of textbook, "safe" Washington insider combo of colorful jacket over black skirt. What a waste.
Time
By Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer
IMF board opts not to fire director who had affair with subordinate
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The head of the International Monetary Fund will keep his job despite having an affair with a married subordinate, the agency's executive board concluded.
The IMF board issued a statement late Saturday saying that the actions of IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn were "regrettable and reflected a serious error of judgment."
However, the 24-member board of directors decided that Strauss-Kahn's relationship with the former IMF employee was consensual and did not involve any type of sexual harassment, favoritism or any abuse of authority.
The board, which represents all 185 member-nations of the lending institution, reached its conclusions at the end of a daylong meeting at IMF headquarters in Washington.
In a statement, the board said that based on the findings of an outside law firm hired to investigate the matter and discussions Saturday with Strauss-Kahn, that they now consider the incident closed.
Shakour Shaalan, the dean of the executive board, told reporters during a conference call that the board believed that the incident would not harm Strauss-Kahn's effectiveness going forward.
An investigative report by the law firm of Morgan, Lewis & Bockius said the two IMF employees acknowledged that there was "consensual physical relationship of short duration in January 2008."
The report noted there was no evidence that Strauss-Kahn "arranged for or provided the female staff member with any work-related benefit for participating in the affair." It also found no evidence that Strauss-Kahn "threatened the female staff member in any way" to keep the affair confidential.
The IMF is expected to play a critical role in providing loans to countries harmed by the current global financial crisis.
The former employee with whom Strauss-Kahn had the affair has been identified as Piroska Nagy, now in London with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
The incident involving Strauss-Kahn occurred 15 months after Paul Wolfowitz resigned as president of the World Bank amid controversy over a pay package for his girlfriend, a bank employee. The World Bank is a sister lending institution to the IMF.
In a statement released with the board's findings, Strauss-Kahn, who became the IMF's 10th managing director a year ago, called what he did a "serious error of judgment" but said he was grateful that the board had found that he had not abused his authority.
"I very much regret this incident, and I accept responsibility for it," Strauss-Kahn said in his statement. "I have apologized for it to the board, to the staff of the IMF and to my family. I would also like to reiterate my apology to the staff member concerned for the distress this process has caused."
Associated Press by Yahoo
IMF board opts not to fire director who had affair with subordinate
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The head of the International Monetary Fund will keep his job despite having an affair with a married subordinate, the agency's executive board concluded.
The IMF board issued a statement late Saturday saying that the actions of IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn were "regrettable and reflected a serious error of judgment."
However, the 24-member board of directors decided that Strauss-Kahn's relationship with the former IMF employee was consensual and did not involve any type of sexual harassment, favoritism or any abuse of authority.
The board, which represents all 185 member-nations of the lending institution, reached its conclusions at the end of a daylong meeting at IMF headquarters in Washington.
In a statement, the board said that based on the findings of an outside law firm hired to investigate the matter and discussions Saturday with Strauss-Kahn, that they now consider the incident closed.
Shakour Shaalan, the dean of the executive board, told reporters during a conference call that the board believed that the incident would not harm Strauss-Kahn's effectiveness going forward.
An investigative report by the law firm of Morgan, Lewis & Bockius said the two IMF employees acknowledged that there was "consensual physical relationship of short duration in January 2008."
The report noted there was no evidence that Strauss-Kahn "arranged for or provided the female staff member with any work-related benefit for participating in the affair." It also found no evidence that Strauss-Kahn "threatened the female staff member in any way" to keep the affair confidential.
The IMF is expected to play a critical role in providing loans to countries harmed by the current global financial crisis.
The former employee with whom Strauss-Kahn had the affair has been identified as Piroska Nagy, now in London with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
The incident involving Strauss-Kahn occurred 15 months after Paul Wolfowitz resigned as president of the World Bank amid controversy over a pay package for his girlfriend, a bank employee. The World Bank is a sister lending institution to the IMF.
In a statement released with the board's findings, Strauss-Kahn, who became the IMF's 10th managing director a year ago, called what he did a "serious error of judgment" but said he was grateful that the board had found that he had not abused his authority.
"I very much regret this incident, and I accept responsibility for it," Strauss-Kahn said in his statement. "I have apologized for it to the board, to the staff of the IMF and to my family. I would also like to reiterate my apology to the staff member concerned for the distress this process has caused."
Associated Press by Yahoo
by Jeffrey A. Trachtenberg
As the economic crisis intensifies, some readers are turning to bookstores for advice on how to manage their own finances, as well as books that offer sweeping views of the larger economy and the forces that are reshaping it.
Below are the top-five selling books in both categories for the week ended Oct. 18 at Barnes & Noble Inc., the country's largest book retailer as measured by revenue.
Below are the top-five selling books in both categories for the week ended Oct. 18 at Barnes & Noble Inc., the country's largest book retailer as measured by revenue.
As the personal finance list indicates, it helps to have a sense of humor when it comes to toting up one's losses and expectations for the future. The tone is decidedly bleaker when it comes to the macro picture. Here, instead of amusing puns, readers are buying books whose titles feature such words as "failed," "crisis" and "danger."
TOP FIVE PERSONAL FINANCE TITLES
"Debt Cures 'They' Don't Want You to Know About" by Kevin Trudeau. A look into the dangers of credit card spending and how to reduce your expenses.
"Women & Money: Owning the Power to Control Your Destiny" by Suze Orman. Ms. Orman writes about how women can gain better control of their finances by better understanding their relationship with money.
"The Money Book for the Young, Fabulous & Broke" by Suze Orman. A book on what the young need to know now about money management.
"The Smart Cookies' Guide to Making More Dough" by the Smart Cookies with Jennifer Barrett. The book's advice: Take charge and get out of debt.
"The Total Money Makeover" by Dave Ramsey. A primer on how to cut debt, save money and create a financial strategy.
TOP FIVE FINANCIAL CRISIS TITLES
"The Forgotten Man: A New History of the Great Depression" by Amity Shlaes. A look at what happened during that other crisis.
"The Partnership: The Making of Goldman Sachs" by Charles D. Ellis. An inside look at the famed investment-banking firm.
"Bad Money: Reckless Finance, Failed Politics, and the Global Crisis of American Capitalism" by Kevin Phillips. Mr. Phillips documents the unraveling of the U.S. economy.
"The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What It Means" by George Soros. An analysis of the issues behind the crisis and their implications.
"The World is Curved: Hidden Dangers to the Global Economy" by David M. Smick. An inside look at what went wrong with the banking system here and abroad.
Provided by
The Wall Street Journal
"The Forgotten Man: A New History of the Great Depression" by Amity Shlaes. A look at what happened during that other crisis.
"The Partnership: The Making of Goldman Sachs" by Charles D. Ellis. An inside look at the famed investment-banking firm.
"Bad Money: Reckless Finance, Failed Politics, and the Global Crisis of American Capitalism" by Kevin Phillips. Mr. Phillips documents the unraveling of the U.S. economy.
"The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What It Means" by George Soros. An analysis of the issues behind the crisis and their implications.
"The World is Curved: Hidden Dangers to the Global Economy" by David M. Smick. An inside look at what went wrong with the banking system here and abroad.
Provided by
The Wall Street Journal
By JAKE COYLE, AP Entertainment Writer
Appearing as President Bush on the primetime edition of "Saturday Night Live," Will Ferrell offered his political "strategery" to Tina Fey's Sarah Palin
Ferrell reprised his famed impression of the president on the live "Weekend Update" special Thursday to give an "impromptu" evening address to the nation. He spoke about the election between John McCain and Barack Obama -- both candidates, he said, that are "heavily patriotized" and "display much characterization."
He then gave his endorsement to McCain and Palin, something that they apparently didn't want. Ferrell said he was unaware that his approval ratings were low because he had several months ago declared the Oval Office a "bummer free zone."
Speaking to Fey again appearing as Palin, Ferrell informed her that her role as vice president was "the most important in the land" and that the "president can do nothing without checking with the vice president." Fey corrected him that he had it backward.
Eventually Darrell Hammond as McCain turned up to reluctantly receive the endorsement.
The sketch between Ferrell and Fey was the meeting of the two of the most popular political impressions in the show's history. It might have been complete only if Chevy Chase stopped by as Gerald Ford, Dana Carvey appeared as H.W. Bush and Amy Poehler joined as Hillary Clinton.
An alum to the NBC comedy show, Ferrell was the latest guest star to make an appearance on "SNL," which has seen its ratings soar this election season. Fey has become a virtual cast member again, thanks to the popularity of her Palin impression, while other surprise guests have included Chris Parnell, Bill Murray, Mark Wahlberg, Alec Baldwin and Queen Latifah Ferrell, a regular on "SNL" from 1995-2006, will in January begin a solo show on Broadway titled "You're Welcome America: A Final Night with George W. Bush."
A regular episode of "SNL" will air Saturday with Jon Hamm ("Mad Men") hosting and musical guest Coldplay.
On the Net:
http://www.nbc.com
Debbie Schlussel shares a few interesting tidbits about the lifestyle of Republican vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin.
“Gov. Palin, a mother of five kids, says exercise is still very much a ‘family thing.’ She and her husband, Todd, also an athlete, named their first son Track because he was born in that sport's season.
‘Conventional running is my sanity,’ Gov. Palin says.
Having recently given birth to her fifth child, the governor is trying to get back to her old workout routine. She was running 7 to 10 miles almost every day but switched to aerobics classes at her gym when she became pregnant. She has worked her way back up to running three miles every other day.
In the summer, when it's always light, she'll sometimes run as late as midnight. In the dead of winter, when it's dark, she sneaks in an afternoon run, or else grudgingly runs on the treadmill at home or at the gym in the evening. Gov. Palin keeps dumbbells at home, but she says most of her upper body strength comes from snowmobiling with her family.
'It's the best upper body workout you could ever have,’ she says. ‘You're maneuvering through hundreds of pounds of powder.’ (Todd is a four-time champion of the Tesoro Iron Dog, the world's longest snowmobile race.)
‘My family and I eat a healthy diet heavy in wild Alaskan seafood, moose, caribou and fresh fruit,’ she says. ‘I guess my biggest pitfall is breakfast. I know it's the most important meal of the day but I still haven't bought into it. I hate to admit it, but a skinny white-chocolate mocha is my staple in the morning. . . . I'm running in 20-below temperatures.’
exposingliberallies.blogspot.com
The hawker: Cash strapped, TV, handphone
I have a friend that always complained on how tough life is, and how difficult it is to make ends meet. He is a hawker, his wife the helper, and has three kids.
Some hawkers are rich, but he is not… I am not really sure why. A couple of years ago, his eldest son finished Form Five, came out to work, got his first pay… and the first thing they did was spending most (if not all) of the salary to buy a new TV.
My friend is still crying on how tough life is… but he got a new company now, with his dear son complaining just about the same thing.
Last I checked, the son use a handphone that is five times more expensive than mine.
Good girl buys Prada
I have a friend, who saved on everything she could, so that she could spend on the latest (and expensive) fashion merchandises… Prada, Gucci, LV, whatever.
She often eats instant noodles for dinner, always complaining money not enough, and probably has three credit cards which she’s indebted with. A sweet and lovely girl though.
The student: PTPTN, laptop, iPod
A distant cousin, second year in college now. Complaining that PTPTN loan not enough, hating his parents for giving him little pocket money.
Have a laptop, an iPod, and never bothered to find a part time job while crying out that he doesn’t have enough money to party with his friends at night.
The smokers
A mamak chat with a few friends after a fuel price hike last year. They smoked a lot, and complained about the price hike. Asked if they would consider quitting (or reducing) smoking… all said no, one said… “tak rokok tak macam jantan lah.”
I wonder if they would have second thoughts after the recent petrol hike. I don’t smoke btw.
The rich and famous
A beautiful friend, cursing the government for the fuel hike… she drives an Audi, and her body smells like Whisky, probably because of some late night drinking.
I told her… “so, drink a bit little lor.” She answered… “#$!@%$, why do I have to change my lifestyle because of the stupid gaman? Pak Lah is $@%! @$% #%! @$%!$@%”
My concern
An ex-colleague, work in a factory, basic pay less than RM1000 (probably a few extra hundreds with OT). Only 26 or 27 of age, has four kids. His wife not working, has to take care of the kids.
He rides a motorbike. I saw him hiding a few packed chocolates in his pocket during a company dinner years ago, wanted to bring back to his kids. A humble guy, probably a good father.
Life is about options
Some people don’t have much options, but for lots of the Malaysians… life is a matter of preferences, and the choices are in your own hands.
From : yeinjee.com
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